Though war-gaming is a popular (and sometimes historically useful) research method, few of the algorithms used to estimate the effectiveness of naval gunfire have been based upon official findings, and virtually none have based their conclusions upon the analysis of systematic testing.
Even today, those wishing to estimate the combat effectiveness of these weapons systems have been forced to resort to the overanalysis of anecdotal or incomplete evidence, or to base their conclusions upon mere guesswork.
The wealth of descriptive information on the ships and weapons of the first half of the twentieth century has not been accompanied by a corresponding increase in the quantity of information surrounding the probable effectiveness of those weapons in combat.
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